Earnings resilience via restructuring
We remain buyers of our Restructuring names for these offer earnings resilience to the cycle should it dip, leverage to it should it recover. ThyssenKrupp, UPM-Kymmene, Aviva, Anglo American, Peugeot...
View ArticleMaersk: reports tomorrow
Maersk is a name we have started to look at and will have more to say after their numbers tomorrow. What appeals to us is a renewed focus on returns, similar to what we are seeing in a number of our...
View ArticleMaersk: positive feedback from the call
A lot of the Q&A was focused on the container shipping business, Maersk Line, where they reiterated the call that the market looks over-supplied for the next few years. In this business line they...
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Maersk: stay long
Riccardo has turned a buyer and there are recommendation upgrades coming through. The performance in the most important division, Shipping, was strong in yesterday’s Q1 report. Volumes were +7%, rates...
View ArticleMaersk: no probes, stay long
The EU says no Antitrust Probes of European and Asian Shipping Pacts. This was rumoured yesterday afternoon and confirmed last night. Good news for at the margin for Maersk. Stay long.
View ArticleMaersk: good China trade figures, stay long
With the shares up 5% in the last few weeks giving just 15% upside (with a 15% conglomerate discount) it’s not the valuation argument that’s the strong point. We are more positive on the prospects for...
View ArticleOil, supply shock in Iraq? Stay long Maersk
Maersk are using a price of $104/barrel for 2014 at present in their assumptions, and $100 as a long-term price. Every $10 adds $100m in profits (assuming bunker fuel rises at same rate). Maersk is...
View ArticleLook East to China (cont)
Further call to our comment in the European Daily on May 22nd, our Asian strategist remains resolutely positive on China. Today’s PMI is another data-point in support of his view. (It improved to 51, a...
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Intermodal traffic highest weekly average ever: stay long Maersk
Intermodal traffic in the US rose 6.7% in June. The weekly average was the highest for any month in history (see chart below). The peak for intermodal traffic is generally in the fall, so look for more...
View ArticleThe one oil stock we do like = Maersk
We remain buyers of Maersk, using recent weakness post the shelving of the P3 Alliance to add. As Maersk discussed at the time they had other options available to them, one of which has come to...
View ArticleChinese trade data – Europe strong. Stay long Maersk
Contrary to market reaction, the miss in the Chinese Export number was not driven from the EU. The % of total exports accounted for by the EU actually rose MoM in June from 15.9% to 16.6% (one of the...
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Maersk (buy): growth in World Trade continues
i) Trade with China Exports to Europe up 17% YoY. Exports to USA up 12% – the largest gain since November. Two-way trading with the US rose 10.5% YoY vs. last month’s +4.8% YoY. This despite cycling...
View ArticleChange in China: positives hidden in plain sight
Two of the key risk factors for China have been run-away off balance sheet financing and an addiction to credit. Numbers today should reassure on both counts. While July aggregate loan figures were...
View ArticleMaersk: good numbers
Steady sailing at Maersk with a solid set of half year results and guidance raised for the full year as a result. The positive surprise this morning was on the strength of the Europe-Asia shipping...
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